It is obvious from our observation of 1000's of samples that some
markers change or mutate at a faster rate than others. While that actual
'faster rate' has not yet been definitively calculated, not all markers
should be treated the same for evaluation purposes.
The markers in red have shown a faster mutation rate then the average, and
therefore these markers are very helpful at splitting lineages into sub
sets, or branches, within your family tree.
Explained another way, if you match exactly on all of the markers except
for one or a few of the markers we have determined mutate more quickly,
then despite the mutation this mismatch only slightly decreases the
probability of two people in your surname group who match 11/12 or even
23/25 of not sharing a recent common ancestor.
Interpreting
genetic distance
What are the probabilities of matching? More information
Table Shows # of Generations
| Match |
50% |
90% |
95% |
95% Confidence Interval | |
| 12-0 | Match exactly at all 12 markers |
14 |
48 |
62 |
1-77 |
| 11-1 | 11 exact matches, 1 mismatch |
37 |
85 |
103 |
5-121 |
| 10-2 | 10 exact matches, 2 mismatch |
61 |
122 |
144 |
14-165 |
| 25-0 | Match exactly at all 25 markers |
7 |
23 |
30 |
0-37 |
| 24-1 | 24 exact matches, 1 mismatch |
17 |
40 |
48 |
2-57 |
| 23-2 | 23 exact matches, 2 mismatch |
28 |
56 |
66 |
6-75 |
|
READING THE DNA TABLE
UNDERSTANDING THE RESULTS OF A 12 MARKER
TEST |
RESULTS ANALYZED.
Of interest is a number called the MRCA time or the estimated time (in generations) to the occurrence of the Most Recent Common Ancestor between two people. Dr. Bruce Walsh of the University of Arizona has calculated this time to be 42 generations at a 50% confidence when the haplotype (repeat pattern) for two people match each other exactly, i.e. 12 markers out of 12. The haplotype for a person is simply the sequential listing of the recorded "repeats" that have been measured. Dr. Walsh's calculations also show this to be 69 generations at a 90% confidence and 93 generations at a 95% confidence. In most cases, however, the common ancestor will occur much sooner. It does suggest, however, the likelihood you share a recent common ancestor with another person diminishes very rapidly as you match fewer and fewer markers.
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